Statistics
First Semester Reflection
As Kyle says, “Mathematics is a tool for uncovering truth in the world.” With that in mind, first semester we started our investigation to understand the truth behind complex systems in our world and how they affect us. One project where we personally investigated a complex system through the lens of statistics was the “Correlation Mini Project.”
For this mini project we were asked to run a correlation and using the results to answer a question that holds some interest to us. This project required us to frame the question, gather data through independent research, run the correlation, and interpret the results both mathematically and in terms of the question and present our results through a professional and subjective paper. (Show on dp)
The purpose of this project was to determine the correlation between the rise in sea level and the population of Galapagos Penguin (GP) population. In this examination I measured 15 years of research on Galapagos Penguin Population compared to sea level rise. In the end of the project I received an A-.
I proved to excel in this project because I believed I would do well. Because this was a written project and took the form much like that of a chemistry paper I felt extremely confident in my subjective writing skills. In addition I had a good understanding of my results and how to use them to solve real problems. For example, in the mini project I had a section that explained what my results meant,
“Through statistical correlation it was proved that there is a strong positive correlation, despite a small amount of data, between the GP and sea level rise. (Chart one) This correlation is one of many that suggests that the rise in global warming in having a negative effect on many organisms. Dr. James D. Agresti and Dr. Schuyler Dugle from Princeton University says, “There is no doubt that our Earth is warming, and there is no question that it is (to say the least) “throwing off” millions of organisms.”
The correlation I found was 0.7, meaning it was a strong positive correlation aka when sea level increases penguin population decreases. 49% of the variation of GP population is explained by sea level. Through I had a small amount of data, the correlation was strong enough to make me understand it’s not chance.
Through analysis it was found that there is a strong coloration between the rise in sea level and the population of Galapagos Penguin population. It was concluded that with each year sea levels rise while the Galapagos Penguin population decreases. It was expected that the cause of decrease in GP population is due to the rise in sea level.”
As you can see I not only restated my results, but also explained them through the context of the larger issue, climate change. Through this experience I gained the ability to understand the truth behind complex systems in our world and how to critically analyze data to come to a solid conclusion. Though this project proved to be complex, though avocation to Kyle I gained a higher level of understanding of what was happening in the computation programs we used, not how it was happening.
Math is a good test case, because it is an area where I feel I struggle; yet I have the capacity to excel. Because of this project I now have an understanding that I excel in situations where I need to understand the results of a mathematical study, not the process in which the results arrived there. This will help me in my area of study as a college student and a professional because there will always be measures I can take to complete a math problem without having to solve it though a technical equation. That gives me hope that my options of study will not be limited due to a lower confidence level in technical equations.